Nordic Financial 4Q 2015 Preview
Strong Swedish macro supportive
Upbeat Swedish macro but World Economic Forum see increased risks aheadWe expect NII to be more or less flat from Q3, as effects from lower interest rates balance lending growth and margin improvements. Furthermore we expect both the NII pressure and the regulatory headwind to continue in 2016. We previously lowered our dividend payout ratios in all of the Swedish banks by 5% to avg. 62.5%, but even after the adjustment the Swedish banks yields 5.8% (15e) which we find very attractive. More importantly we find a 5% leverage ratio obtainable for all the Swedes.